CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD PRICE INFLATION IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on food price inflation in Nigeria motivated by the current cost of living crisis, problem of food availability and affordability, as well as climate-related crisis in agriculture supply chain. Rainfall, temperature, internal migration and climate change policies were used as independent variables, while food price inflation was used as dependent variable. The unit root test revealed that the variables were stationary at I(1) and I(0). Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction models were the methods of analysis. Findings revealed that rainfall had negative and statistically significant impact on food price inflation with a coefficient of -0.509875 and a probability value of 0.0002. Temperature revealed a positive and statistically insignificant impact on food price inflation in Nigeria with the coefficients of 0.010999 and probability value of 0.1658; internal migration also had a positive and statistically significant impact on food price inflation having a coefficient of 32.76860 and probability value of 0.2901; while climate change policy had a negative and statistically significant impact on food price inflation with the coefficient of 3.397872 and a probability of 0.2821. In conclusion, Nigeria has climate change challenges, and these have also had significant impact on food supply chain and food prices. The study recommends extension services on climate-smart agriculture; also, government needs to implement effective agriculture and food policy urgently, construct more dams, drainages and irrigational water space to curb the challenges of climate change and food price inflation in the economy.