CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD PRICE INFLATION IN NIGERIA

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.sidebar##

Published Dec 31, 2024
Download
PDF
Statistic
Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): December 2024

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.main##

Mathias Agri ENEJI
Department of Economics, University of Jos, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
Victor Nsor NNAMDI
Department of Economics, University of Jos, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
Jeremiah Nshe MANOMI
Department of Economics, University of Jos, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
Enyikah ILIYA
Department of Economics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on food price inflation in Nigeria motivated by the current cost of living crisis, problem of food availability and affordability, as well as climate-related crisis in agriculture supply chain. Rainfall, temperature, internal migration and climate change policies were used as independent variables, while food price inflation was used as dependent variable. The unit root test revealed that the variables were stationary at I(1) and I(0). Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction models were the methods of analysis. Findings revealed that rainfall had negative and statistically significant impact on food price inflation with a coefficient of -0.509875 and a probability value of 0.0002. Temperature revealed a positive and statistically insignificant impact on food price inflation in Nigeria with the coefficients of 0.010999 and probability value of 0.1658; internal migration also had a positive and statistically significant impact on food price inflation having a coefficient of 32.76860 and probability value of 0.2901; while climate change policy had a negative and statistically significant impact on food price inflation with the coefficient of 3.397872 and a probability of 0.2821. In conclusion, Nigeria has climate change challenges, and these have also had significant impact on food supply chain and food prices. The study recommends extension services on climate-smart agriculture; also, government needs to implement effective agriculture and food policy urgently, construct more dams, drainages and irrigational water space to curb the challenges of climate change and food price inflation in the economy.

##plugins.themes.academic_pro.article.details##

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

References

  1. Abril-Salcedo, D. S., Melo-Velandia, L. F., & Parra-Amado, D. (2020). Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El nino and Colombian food prices. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 64, 1059–1086.
  2. Agyei, S. K., Isshaq, Z., Frimpong, S., Adam, A. M., Bossman, A., & Asiamah, O. (2021). COVID-19 and food prices in sub-Saharan Africa. African Development Review, 33(3),102–113.
  3. Ahmad, M. J., Sheikh, M. R., & Tariq, K. (2021). Domestic Debt and Inflationary Effects: An Evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 2(18),256–263.
  4. Akanni, L. O. (2020). Returns and volatility spillover between food prices and exchange rate in Nigeria. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, 10(3), 307–325.
  5. Central Bank of Nigeria. (2020). Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin.
  6. Eregha, B. P. (2022). Asymmetric response of cpi inflation to exchange rates in oil-dependent developing economy: The case of Nigeria. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55 (10),91–110.
  7. Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO]. (2008). Global food security: Issues and prospects. Rome: FAO.
  8. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO]. (2012). Food Security Statistics- Nigeria; FAOSTAT, Rome: FAO.
  9. Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO]. (2017). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2017: Building resilience for peace and food security. Rome: FAO.
  10. Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO]. (2019). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2019. Safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns. Rome: FAO.
  11. Foye V. O. (2018). Dynamics of Climate Change, Human Health and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria. African Journal of Sustainable Development, 8(2), 31–62.
  12. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, Cambridge MA.
  13. Guivarch, C., Crassous R., Sassi, O., & Hallegatte, S. (2011). The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market imperfections. Climate Policy, 11:768–788.
  14. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), (2007). Summary for Policy Makers. In climate change (2007): Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of working Group 11 to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change.
  15. Kunawotor, M. E., Bokpin, G. A., Asuming, P. O., & Amoateng, K. A. (2021). The impacts of extreme weather events on inflation and the implications for monetary policy in Africa. Progress in Development Studies, 22, 130–148.
  16. Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. American Economic Review, 45(1): 28.
  17. Ladan, S., & Badaru, S. I. (2022). Food security and national insecurity: Pathways to averting an impending food crisis in Nigeria. Journal of Agriculture and Food Science, 9(3), 50–69.
  18. Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1912). A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960. Princeton, The Princeton University Press, 1963.
  19. Manabe, S., & Wetherald, R. (1967). Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given degree of relative humidity. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 24(5), 241–259.
  20. Max, R., & Ritchie, H. (2013). Food Prices. Our World in Data.
  21. Medugu, A. (2009). The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture. A Policy Research Working Paper. 4306. World Bank, Washington, DC.
  22. Mkpa, M. (2013). Development of Curriculum on Climate Change for Non-formal Education. Journal of Curriculum Studies, 20(4).
  23. Mukherjee, K., & Ouattara, B. (2021). Climate and monetary policy: Do temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures? Climate Change, 167, 32.
  24. National Bureau of Statistics. (2020). Livestock production statistics in Nigeria. Retrieved from National Bureau of Statistics website.
  25. National Bureau of Statistics (2022). The National Agricultural Sample Census Report 2022.
  26. Ngigi, S. N. (2009). Climate change adaptation strategies: water resources management options for smallholder farming systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. The MDG Centre for East and Southern Africa of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation.
  27. Nyong, A. O. (2023). Combating Climate Change for National Security and Development. Lecture Delivered on the Joint 33rd and 34th Convocation of the University of Jos.
  28. Ojo, M. (2000). Principles and Practice of Monetary Policy in Nigeria. Lagos: Nigeria.
  29. Ojo, A. O., Akinbamijo, O. O., & Awoyemi, T. T. (2020). Agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria: Issues, policies, and measures. International Journal of Agricultural Policy and Research, 8(1), 1–12.
  30. Spratt, S. (2013). Food price volatility and financial speculation. FAC Working Paper, 47. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.304.5228
  31. Tanure, T. M., Miyajima, A. S. Magalhães, E. P. Domingues, & Carvalho, T. S. (2020). The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049. Economia, 21(1), 73–90.
  32. United Nations Development Program [UNDP] (2009). Linking Climate Change Policies to Human Development Analysis and Advocacy, A Guidance Note for Human Development Report Team; UNDP, Human Development Report Office: Washington, DC, USA, 2009.
  33. United Nation on Environmental Programme [UNEPA]. (2000). Global Warming and Agriculture: New Country Estimates Show Developing Countries Face Declines in Agricultural Productivity, Center for Global Development, 1–4.
  34. United States Environmental Protection Agency (2018). Climate Change: Basic Information. https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climatechange/climate-change basic information.html. N.d.b. ‘Climate Change Indicators: Weather and Climate.’ https:// www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate.
  35. Winecoff, O, K., & Kindred, W. (2020). Food Price Spikes and Social Unrest: The Dark Side of the Fed's Crisis-Fighting. Foreign Policy. Retrieved September 19, 2020, from https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/20/food-price-spikes-and-social-unrest-the-dark-side-of-the-feds-crisis-fighting/.
  36. World Bank (2021). Data Bank World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-developmentindicators.
  37. World Bank Group. (2021). Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Nigeria. Retrieved from https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/nigeria
  38. World Bank. (2021). Data Bank World Development Indicators. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
  39. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2021). State of the Global Climate WMO-No. 1264; WMO: Geneva, Switzerland, 2021.