Green Transition or Administrative Illusion? Climate Budgeting and Procurement in Nigerian States

Abstract

This study examines how state-level budgeting and public procurement shape climate implementation in Nigeria’s federal system. It argues that climate governance is not secured by statutory ambition alone, but by whether climate priorities are incorporated into the fiscal and contractual routines through which subnational governments allocate resources, procure goods and services, and govern delivery. Drawing on the climate governance, green budgeting, and sustainable procurement literatures,
the article identifies a persistent gap in existing scholarship: the weak treatment of budgeting and procurement as linked institutional channels of
subnational climate action. To address this gap, the study adopts a sequential explanatory mixed methods design that combines documentary analysis of state budgets, procurement, and policy records across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory with comparative case analysis and elite interviews.The article develops three analytical constructs: Climate Budgeting Alignment, Green Public Procurement Alignment, and State Climate Implementation Alignment. The findings show substantial inter-state variation, with procurement reform generally advancing further than climate budgeting, though both remain uneven. Higher implementation capacity is associated with stronger coordination, administrative capability, and the joint embedding of climate priorities in budget and procurement systems. The study contributes to climate governance theory, public procurement scholarship, and Nigerian policy by showing that subnational climate transition depends on institutional alignment within the state’s allocative and contractual core.