CHINA–NIGERIA TRADE RELATIONS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA: A DEPENDENCY THEORY PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Amid Nigeria’s growing economic engagement with China, concerns have emerged about the long-term implications of this partnership for sustainable economic development. This study analysed the dynamics of China–Nigeria trade relations, anchored on dependency theory. A quantitative methodology was adopted, utilizing data from the UN Comtrade Database, Chinese Customs Authority, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and peer-reviewed academic literature. Descriptive statistical methods, including trend analysis and import-export ratios, were employed to assess bilateral trade flows between Nigeria and China from 1999 to 2023. The findings revealed a consistent upward trajectory in trade volume over the 24 years, alongside a deepening asymmetry. The study also revealed that Nigeria exported $0.6 billion worth of goods to China in 1999 compared to $1.2 billion in imports. By 2023, exports had increased modestly to $1.61 billion, while imports surged to $18.99 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $17.38 billion. This persistent imbalance, coupled with Nigeria’s continued export of raw materials, confirms a structural dependency in the trade relationship and constrains sustainable economic development. The study recommended that Nigeria should implement a strategic export diversification plan by incentivizing non-oil sectors such as agro-processing, solid minerals beneficiation, and light manufacturing. Bilateral trade agreements with China should also be revised to improve market access for Nigerian products. Furthermore, the government should establish an industrial policy council to integrate trade, investment, and education strategies in support of long-term industrialization.